The global energy transition is taking place

Despite COP 28's vague declaration of intent to phase out coal, oil and gas, the outlook is positive. CO2 emissions will peak in 2025 - and then begin an unstoppable downward trend, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). "The transition to clean energy is happening around the world and it is unstoppable," says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "It's not a question of 'if', but only 'how soon' - and the sooner, the better for all of us."

The World Energy Outlook predicts an energy system in 2030 in which clean technologies will play a much larger role than they do today: there will be almost ten times as many electric cars on the road worldwide, photovoltaics will generate more electricity than the entire US electricity system does today, and the share of renewables in the global electricity mix will rise to almost 50 per cent. Heat pumps and other electric heating systems have overtaken fossil fuel boilers worldwide, and three times more investment is going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal and gas power stations.

This would not even require tougher policies: According to the IEA, all of this growth is based on the current policies of governments around the world. If countries also meet their national energy and climate commitments on time and in full, progress in clean energy would be even faster.

However, there is still a big catch: the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C will not be met. But it is not too late. Five key actions bring it within reach, the IEA writes.